An Article on Scenario Thinking
Scenario thinking also known as scenario planning is
described in WIKIPEDIA (2013) as “a strategic planning method that some organizations
use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and
generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.” (WIKIPEDIA 2013). Scenario
thinking is based on a model that is drawn like a cross with the X-axis
representing one variable and the Y-axis representing another variable. According
to WIKIPEDIA, introduction of scenario planning is attributed to Herman Kahn
through his work for the US Military in the 1950s at the RAND
Corporation where he developed a technique of describing the future in stories as
if written by people in the future.”
Scenario thinking or planning can further be described as
the experimenting to find out how something or someone change or behave when
certain variables are shifted. Scearce,D. Fulton, K. and the Global Business
Network community (2004) notes that “ scenario thinking is a tool for
motivating people to challenge the status quo, or get better at doing so, by
asking “What if?” Asking “What if?” in a disciplined way allows you to rehearse
the possibilities of tomorrow, and the to take the action today empowered by
those provocations and insights” (Scearce, D. Fulton, K. and the Global
Business Network community, 2004, p.3)
Benjamin Franklin once remarked thus, “Only three things are
certain in life, birth, death and taxes.” To add to that, I say change. Bruce
Sterling a science fiction writer argues, “Futurism is the art of reperception.
It means recognizing that life will change, must change, and has changed, and
it suggests how and why. It shows that old perception have lost their validity
while new ones are possible.”
Scenario thinking at a glance may seem as a complicated
economic concept that is the reserve of economists. An example will help
de-mystify this concept. Imagine you want to measure the economic development
of your country.
You grab a piece of paper and draw two lines. One vertical
running on the left hand side of the paper from top to bottom. Draw another
horizontal line from the base of the first line running from left to right. Now
you have a sample of graph paper with x-axis and y-axis.
Now name the y-axis at the base, “Bad Governance and at the
top, “Good Governance.” Likewise, name the x-axis at the base, “Weak Economy”
and at the far end, “Vibrant Economy.” Note that the x-axis will represent
economic development.
Next, draw two diagonal lines one starting at the base of
the intersection between the two lines running from left to right. The other
diagonal line starting from the top of the y-axis running diagonally from left
to right. The result is a diagram similar to that of a supply and demand curves as used in economics.
Now assume the supply curve to represent the effect of good
governance brought about by for instance democracy, peace, and order etcetera. You
will notice that as you move further and further away from the base of the
curve the resultant effect is a vibrant economy or economic development. The
reverse being if there is bad governance the result is a weak economy or
stalled economic development.
Let the demand curve represent enemies of development for
instance war, anarchy, corruption. In addition what you notice is that as we
move further from the top of the curve
towards the far end down along the curve, represents better economic
development and vice versa. The intersection of these two curves will represent
the equilibrium; the point at each economic development is at any particular
time.
It follows that scenario thinking is a concept that can be
used on any kind of situation in our lives so long as we have shifting
variables. It is important to note that various assumptions are made while
using this model.
REFERENCE
Global Business Network. Available from: http://www.monitorinstitute.com/downloads/what-we-think/what-if/What_If.pdf
[Accessed: 12/04/2013]
SCEARCE, D. FULTON,
K. AND THE GLOBAL BUSINESS NETWORK COMMUNITY (2004) What if? The art of scenario thinking for non-profits [Online] Available
from: http://www.monitorinstitute.com/downloads/what-we-think/what-if/What_If.pdf.
[Accessed 12/4/2013]
WIKIPEDIA (2013) [Online] Available from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
[Accessed: 12th April 2013]
